The Hayseeds blog, No. 260 for the week starting June 8, 2008.
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It looks like there campaign staffers accidentally sent out a letter by the First Lady that was on a copy of state stationary which is of course big no-no.
That said, this event has gotten the interest of some politicos who are interested in how much interest there is in Don Barber's fight against Senator Jim Wright.
While the Barber race is not currently considered in the top tier of races for this fall, the attendee list indicates there is interest in seeing Barber succeed. A Democratic insider said the party has been impressed with Barber’s fundraising and campaign so far, so depending on how things go, this race could move up in priority, and it wouldn’t be the first time.
Sen. David Valesky wasn’t considered a top tier candidate when he started his campaign against longtime incumbent Nancy Larraine Hoffman in 2004. But when it seemed that the race was tipping toward Valesky, the party threw significant resources in the final few weeks, which helped him win the seat.
This is definitely another race to watch, even if it's not necessarily a give away right now.
It seems as though the Times Union is reporting that Assembly Contest is Taking Shape about Mark Blanchfield running for state Assembly.
It seems as though the Times Union is reporting that Much Ado, Little Accomplished On State Issues.
It seems as though the Times Union is reporting that Crews Work to Secure Building.
Emergency crews worked Sunday to stabilize an Upper East Side building damaged in the latest deadly crane collapse, as residents displaced by the incident waited to see when they could get inside.
Gina and Larry Bliss and their daughters Lainie, 22 months, and Sadie, 5 months, who live in the damaged building, had been told they could go in Sunday morning to check on their belongings. But when they got to the police barricade surrounding the accident scene, where two men were killed and another injured on Friday, they were told to come back later.
The family moved in a week before the crane hit the building and has no plans to leave. "eAs long as the building's safe, we're going back,"e Gina Bliss said. "eWe love the area."e
Interesting.
It seems that NYC teachers are guaranteed a fixed 8.25% a year from their pension program under state law.
Also in the same article is a discussion of how Tonko has been able to keep his NYS Assembly plates even though he hasn't been a member for almost a year now.
That's what he is arguing in today's newspaper:
A look at ESD's performance during the 12 years of the Pataki administration shows that it is not.
Between 1998 and 2006, ESD invested about $475 million in support of upstate business assistance projects, more than 60 percent of the statewide total, despite the fact that upstate has only about 30 percent of the state's population. ESD invested twice as much per resident of upstate New York as it did downstate. That investment helped create and retain about 225,000 jobs in upstate New York between 1997 and 2006.
During that period, Empire State Development made major investments in the Capital Region's most important economic development initiatives, including the successful University at Albany College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering, and in the business partnerships at Albany Nanotech with Tokyo Electron, Sematech and others.
That is all very true.
That's what this TU LtE is claiming. I'm not sure if people who lived downtown prior to 1995 would agree.
While many hard-core Republicans still like the Republican "brand" (the idea of calling oneself a Republican and associating with great leaders like Barry Goldwater and Ronald Regean), many are unhappy with the contemporary Republican positions on the issues:
Let’s start with the economy. When voters know what party each message comes from, we lose 37% to 58% and trail among independents by 18%. Ouch. However, when you read both messages without telling voters who they come from, the story gets worse.
Republican voters like the Democrat’s message more than their own party’s message by a large 14% margin when they don’t know which party it comes from. Just as disturbing, numbers among independents drop by another 10%... giving the Democrats a massive 28% advantage. Even our horrifically damaged image is better than our message on the economy. Independents and even Republicans simply like the Democrats’ plan more than ours.
Iraq and trade both follow the exact same pattern. We’re getting smashed on both issues on the partisan test, but when you look at the nonpartisan test where our damaged image isn’t a factor, the numbers get even worse among Independents and Republicans. A few Democrats (and in the case of trade a bunch of Democrats) move our way on the nonpartisan ballot, but Independents actually agree with our messages more when they know the messages came from Republicans.
On taxes, the picture gets more complex. On the partisan text, Independents like the Democrats’ message by significant 14% margin, but Republicans still like our message and give us a resounding 39% advantage. That changes drastically on the nonpartisan test.
When the party’s names are removed, Independents are almost evenly split, giving the Democrats’ message a small 5% advantage. However, Republican voters stampede away from the GOP message. Among Republicans, support for the GOP message on taxes drops by a gargantuan 53% when the party’s names are removed, leaving the Democrats with a 14% advantage. You read that right, on the nonpartisan test, Independents like the GOP message on taxes more than Republicans do and even Independents slightly favor the Democrats.
That's great news for Democrats, at least in the short-term. But I'm sure the Republican message will evolve, and they will bring their party back into relevancy. But for as much as a decade, it could mean that Democrats could be back in power, and we could see another expansion of society like the 1960s.
I think the possibilities are excited for the progressive agenda. But I'm guardedly cautious, as when things go left, they're always is a motion back in the other direction. The time is here for progressives it seems, at least for now.
They analyze all kinds of statistics to make predictions on the upcoming elections this fall.
Before going to elementary schools, all kids will now be required to show proof of good dental health or if the parents' can't afford care, get a check up.
For his coverage of the troopergate scandal.
It's now on Youtube and definitely worth a watch. This years theme—all things Michael Bloomberg.
The building boom is largely to blame for the latest death, the Times opines in The Human Toll of a Building Binge.
They say if one more crane fails, they will shutdown all crane operations in the city.
The New York Times is reporting that Tim Green Abandons Plans for New York Senate Race.
There is an interesting article in the Rochester D&C called Greece Businessman Runs for Assembly that you should read.
It seems that poor students trying to make their way through community colleges are increasingly being denied access to student loans as creditors fear the risk. Not to worry, students attending prestigious colleges still can get all they credit they'd ever want.
Across the river, the Troy Record is reporting that the NYS targets autism research, treatment.
Wait Till the States Cut Back says the NY Times that has dire predictions for the economy as state spending falls with state revenues declining.
Struggling as we are with the housing bust, the credit crunch, shrinking consumption, rising unemployment and faltering business investment, we can be forgiven for thinking that all the big shoes have dropped. There is another one up there, however, and it is about to come down.
State and city governments have yet to shrink the economy; indeed, they have even managed to prop it up. They have quietly maintained their spending at pre-crisis levels even as they warn of numerous cutbacks forced on them by declining tax revenues. The cutbacks, however, are written into budgets for a fiscal year that begins on July 1, a month away. In the meantime the states and cities, often drawing on rainy-day savings, have carried their share of the load for the national economy.
That share is gigantic. At $1.8 trillion annually in a $14 trillion economy, the states and municipalities spend almost twice as much as the federal government, including the cost of the Iraq war. When librarians, lifeguards, teachers, transit workers, road repair crews and health care workers disappear, or airport and school construction is halted, the economy trembles. None of that, or very little, has happened so far, not even in California, despite a significant decline in tax revenue.
It will certainly be something to watch.
His says that continuing fears of fall out over the financial meltdown that was stopped will keep wage-price inflation from spiraling out of control, as energy and food prices drive up the cost of everything else.
It seems as though the greenback will once again change to comply with a US Court of Appeals decision requiring that money be accessible to the blind.
That's what The Utica Dispatch asks.
Today on WAMC / National Public Radio there is a story about US "Floating Prisons" Cause International Uproar that is an informative listen.
The headline in the British newspaper The Guardian this morning claims the US government has secretly detained thousands of political prisoners on what are being called floating prisons around the world. Their crime is suspected terrorism and civil rights organizations say the US is holding them illegally. Hudson Valley bureau chief Susan Barnett spoke with an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration whose name is synonymous with political activism.
Every four years it is a leap year, when it is dividable by four—so years like 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, etc. That's also when we have presidential elections.
Every President in the United States' history was elected on a leap year except for two. Do you know who they are?
There is an interesting article called Social Security Isn't Broken - MarketWatch that you should read.
There is an interesting article called Most Uncommitted Senators to Endorse Obama that you should read.
That's what NPR looks at on the Bryant Project in the state.
Suozzi's Property Tax Commission has reported back with several findings:
The commission said in return for increasing levies by 4 percent or less school districts would no longer be required to submit their budgets for voter approval. Such votes would only occur in districts that want to exceed the cap.
To do so would require approval by at least 55 percent of voters. And if the district received an increase in state aid of 5 percent or more and still wanted to override the 4 percent cap, 60 percent of voters would have to agree.
School districts that don't exceed the cap and increase taxes by less than 4 percent per year would be able to "bank"the percentage between their levy and 4 percent for use in future years. However, districts could not surpass the previous year's tax increase by more than 1 1/2 percent.
There also is a provision to raise the cap to account for the need to raise money for new construction of school buildings.
Interesting.
Today on WAMC / National Public Radio there is a story about Scott McClellan, Roiling the Washington Waters that is an informative listen.
That's what the LA Times Opines some 40 years later.
It now costs another $1.25 a pack in tax for cigarettes as of today, which of course has lead to people complaining and saying once again they'll quit smoking.
Wikipedia has an interesting article on the history of the peace symbol.
It looks like the Town of Colonie is trying to make there residents pay more in taxes by a mid-year tax increase to make up for the deficit, but the state isn't so happy to go along with it.
The bill is A.9648 Reilly in the Assembly (reported to Ways & Means 5/13) and S.6971 Breslin in the Senate (no movement).
It looks like those of us saving money won't lose any more interest, and while those borrowing will not get any more of a discount, nor will people with adjustable rate mortgages get any more of a break.
The fed cities high risk of inflation for the decision.
Many people wonder what will happen. A little insight:
I am currently reviewing the Commission on Property Tax Relief report released this afternoon.
The report raises many important and complicated issues.
The Assembly Majority shares the concern of the many New Yorkers who are struggling to pay rising property taxes. We have long called for meaningful tax relief, including the use of a "ecircuit breaker"e, which is endorsed in the report.
Any action that we take must guarantee that schoolchildren across the state will have the resources necessary to get a quality education.
Interesting.
From the impossible for politicians to do category today, there are people who are insisting that the city council do something about the violence in Albany after the shooting incident.
What are they going to do? Make murder a crime? Maybe a felony? I think they've already done those things. It's already against the law to kill another people, and I'm sure they will arrest and prosecute whoever killed another person.
I know—they can pass another feel good law. That way they are doing something, and even if they don't actually stop another killing on city streets, they will be able to smile to the voters with shits and giggles and be happy.
At least if you pay a $20 fee and pass a terrorist background check. Of course, if your like me, and have the word "TERRORIST" printed on their license or lack $20 dollars, they'd probably deny you access.
They are coming against a proposal that would allow schools to raise taxes up to 4% a year or 120% of the core inflation rate without voter approval.
Exceed that they would have to put it up to voter approval, requiring 55% of voter approval rather then the existing 50% for all budgets. Schools that got significant state aid increases from the state, exceeding 5% over the previous year, would require a 60% vote.
The argument that schools have expenses that raise greater then inflation is absurd. Yes, gas prices go up, but we pay for them too. Yes, we all get wage raises, but so do teachers. Why should schools doing better off in revenue, then we mere mortals can't be better off.
The cap isn't that solid. It's definitely possible for schools to override the cap. If a school district has a good reason to increase taxes greatly over the rate of inflation, then they should be able to muster up 55% of the vote to do as such.
The state legislature and Congress must have 66% (2/3rds) of the vote to override the veto of the President. They often succeed in override efforts when they are attempted, if they have good reasons to do as such. The farm bill, for example, got 2/3rd vote in both the Senate and House for an override.
I am utterly disappointed with the Working Families Party once again railing against such a modest increase.
Even former Albany city Republican chairman Joseph P. Sullivan is now getting into the Congressional race in the Democratic Primary. Sullivan always struck me as a pretty good guy, the same kind of flamboyancy that most of the Albany County GOP has always had.
To be an Albany County Republican, outside of the once safe suburbs of Bethlehem, Guilderland, and Colonie, means you have to be a real character. A loner or a lone wolf. Somebody with radically different ideas then everybody else in the county, or at least a reformer of sorts.
That's what Dicker is reporting in the Post, where he claims that the DA's office has been too slow at releasing transcripts regarding Troopergate.
Originally, the DA's office record access office denied him access to the records he FOIL'd. Then upon further review by appeal, they agreed to provide him access to records. Dicker is now complaining 14 days after the appeal, he has not received the records. The DA's office has 20 days to provide the records.
This is not an unusual game to play. The State University system often has policy of doing this regularly—indeed, when I FOIL'd SUNY Plattsburgh, they always did this to me, making me wait 20 days, based on the postmark, to receive records.
The AP earlier reported that Hillary may concede, but her campaign denies it.
The NY Times looks at the changing campaign as we reach the end.
That's what the Times Union reports this afternoon.
They look at one of the three men in a room in an article called Is State Assembly Leader Sheldon Silver an Obstructionist?.
It looks like the Working Families Party officially will be supporting Paul Tonko. The question is will they be able to make a difference, or will their volunteers ignore their endorsement, and support a real progressive candidate like Phil Steck?
Upstream has an interesting article about Paul Tonko's house and his 20 MPG car he drives from Amsterdam to Malta every day.
That's what CapCon is reporting.
That's what NPR asks in Obama Aims to Sew Up Nomination.
She says she is ready to accept VP.
She says she will do what is necessary for dems to win.
That's one more superdelegate for him.
Across the river, the Troy Record is reporting that the Commission censures Judge Griffin.
It looks like tonight he will become the presumptive nominee.
That's great news for him that suggests he'll get some real grassroots support, despite Tonko's WFP endorsement.
That's what ABC News is reporting.
They are many issues cities face when they clean up and become magnets for growth.
NPR looks at the homeless who live in London's airport.
So reports CNN.
It looks like Obama will be the Democrat for President.
Everybody knows he's going to win, and has $145k to prove it, which he has raised. Being the incumbent District Attorney has it's perks, when you decide defense attorney's cases.
That's almost as good as many of the Congressional candidates (and they don't decide anybody's fate). Still, despite Soares not following the law when it comes to FOIL, he's a good guy, a reformer, who seems like he will continue to be a decent District Attorney for our County.
Everybody knows it's going to happen tonight.
The Assembly adjourned hours and hours before it was supposed to do to allow members to get to New York City, probably to see Hillary Clinton conceed. It's over.
It looks like it's official now, Barack Obama will be leading our party into November, and hopefully our county in January.
His speech at Saint Paul Minnesota, where he declared victory was quite impressive.
The selections from his speech:
Tonight, after fifty-four hard-fought contests, our primary season has finally come to an end.
Sixteen months have passed since we first stood together on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Thousands of miles have been traveled. Millions of voices have been heard. And because of what you said – because you decided that change must come to Washington; because you believed that this year must be different than all the rest; because you chose to listen not to your doubts or your fears but to your greatest hopes and highest aspirations, tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another – a journey that will bring a new and better day to America. Tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.
I want to thank every American who stood with us over the course of this campaign – through the good days and the bad; from the snows of Cedar Rapids to the sunshine of Sioux Falls. And tonight I also want to thank the men and woman who took this journey with me as fellow candidates for President.
At this defining moment for our nation, we should be proud that our party put forth one of the most talented, qualified field of individuals ever to run for this office. I have not just competed with them as rivals, I have learned from them as friends, as public servants, and as patriots who love America and are willing to work tirelessly to make this country better. They are leaders of this party, and leaders that America will turn to for years to come...
...The journey will be difficult. The road will be long. I face this challenge with profound humility, and knowledge of my own limitations. But I also face it with limitless faith in the capacity of the American people. Because if we are willing to work for it, and fight for it, and believe in it, then I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth. This was the moment – this was the time – when we came together to remake this great nation so that it may always reflect our very best selves, and our highest ideals. Thank you, God Bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
It's great to think we finally have our first African American presidential candidate, and a great progressive Democrat.
Here's Brooks and Dunn's Only in America to celebrate. I remember back in 2001 when this song was on the radio almost 24-7. It's great, and I happened to just stumble upon it on my laptop this morning riding the bus in.
The NY Times looks at how in the late hours of yesterday, Obama was pushed over the top by Superdelegates.
The NY Times looks at how Obama got the delegates to win.
The NY Times looks at Obama now that he is the nominee.
The man who is prosecuting Spitzer for his roll in a prostitution ring, is warning all state officials to act ethically, or risk serious punishment by the federal prosecutor.
He officially announced his bid against Senator Bruno in the upcomming race for State Senate in Rensselear and Saratoga Counties.
He endorsed the proposal by the Suozzi commission, that would only require a 55% majority vote on school taxes should tax rates be increased greatly above the rate inflation.
Which is Bush or McCain's position on the issues?
Apparently that's a popular catchphrase for Republicans.
After spending several months studying the issues facing the aging Troy City Hall, a committee set up to deal with the issue did little more then suggest what the costs of the various options would be, including repairing the historic Brutalist building, demolishing it and moving to an ugly glass curtain building being abandoned by Verizon, or doing something else.
That's what the Buffalo News is reporting today.
They suggest it's part of a long needed series of state tax cuts to help get the state back into balance.
The NY Post looks at Hillary's run for President.
They are claiming that they're troubles of the past are behind them.
Everybody is abuzz about the possibilities of a Governor Bloomberg. He certainly would be a character.
This site helps you predict the likely outcome of federal elections this November.
The American Prospect takes a look.
That's what the Huffington Post reports.
That's what bloggingheads.tv looks at.
The Republicans are showing how racist and how anti-civil liberties they are today as they debate the Police Community Relations Package.
It's actually quite offense to watch. But be warned.
That's what TU Local Politics Blog is reporting, claiming that he has yet to show any signs of sending out designating petitions.
From Capital News 9:
One thing is wrong with the video. It is not a supermajority required to allow schools to raise taxes above the no-vote limit (4% or 120% of inflation whichever is lower) proposed by Suozzi Commission, but is only 55%. That is only slightly more then half, meaning that there is a strong belief, but not a full consensus that there is a need for a very high tax hike.
People are now looking at what challenges Obama faces.
People are asking what's next.
Apparently widespread fraud is alleged.
That's what North Country Public Radio reports.
From North Country Public Radio:
That's what NPR is reporting.
That's the rumor that is on Daily Politics.
CNN looks at the challenges facing Obama as the new party leader.
The great Senator from New York who died so tragetically on the campaign trail 40 years ago today. Americans across the nation awoke to newspapers and televisions telling the world the sad news.
Ted Soreson remembers his time with RFK.
Governor Paterson will sign a bill, A.10789 Silver / S7231 Bruno that will rename the Triborough Bridge to the Robert F. Kennedy Bridge. All signs, contracts, and references in the law will be changed to honor RFK and Triborough will be dropped, much like the Idlewild Airport, which is now known as JFK. More on Newsday.
Blake Fleetwood asks What if RFK Had Lived?
RFK's children Remember Their Father in the NYT.
RFK Photographer Richard Valles remembers.
RFK funeral persusation remembered.
Many NYT stories on RFK's Death and Life.
ABC News looks at A Time It Was: Bobby Kennedy in the 1960s, with a series of photographs.
Los Angeles Times remembers the night he died.
NBC's News Coverage and Special on the Assassination:
A YouTube Video Remembering RFK:
RFK at the 1964 Democratic National Convention:
RFK A Tiny Ripple of Hope Speech:
RFK's Mindless Menace of Violence:
RFK on the On Gross Domestic Product.
He says while the state lacks the money to do Clean Money, Clean Elections, he'll support many reforms that would reduce the influence of money in politics.
Gov. David Paterson on Wednesday proposed a series of campaign finance changes that would lower contribution limits, close corporate loopholes and ban political fundraisers in and around Albany during the legislative session. The bill would also mandate more disclosure about "bundlers," people who package numerous contributions that would exceed the limits if they were counted as a single donation.
Paterson in a prepared statement signaled that he'd eventually like to institute publicly funded campaigns. But, given the state's precarious financial condition, he said that will have to wait.
Until then, the governor said his campaign finance proposal could blunt Albany's pay-to-play culture in which large corporations, unions and other big money donors get exceptional access to lawmakers and their agendas.
Interesting.
The Daily Gazette looks at locals reactions to Clinton's defeat.
This was sent out today:
I wanted you to be one of the first to know: on Saturday, I will hold an event in Washington D.C. to thank everyone who has supported my campaign. Over the course of the last 16 months, I have been privileged and touched to witness the incredible dedication and sacrifice of so many people working for our campaign. Every minute you put into helping us win, every dollar you gave to keep up the fight meant more to me than I can ever possibly tell you.
On Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Senator Obama are small compared to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.
I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise.
When I decided to run for president, I knew exactly why I was getting into this race: to work hard every day for the millions of Americans who need a voice in the White House.
I made you — and everyone who supported me — a promise: to stand up for our shared values and to never back down. I'm going to keep that promise today, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.
I will be speaking on Saturday about how together we can rally the party behind Senator Obama. The stakes are too high and the task before us too important to do otherwise.
I know as I continue my lifelong work for a stronger America and a better world, I will turn to you for the support, the strength, and the commitment that you have shown me in the past 16 months. And I will always keep faith with the issues and causes that are important to you.
In the past few days, you have shown that support once again with hundreds of thousands of messages to the campaign, and again, I am touched by your thoughtfulness and kindness.
I can never possibly express my gratitude, so let me say simply, thank you.
Sincerely,
Hillary
Hillary Rodham Clinton
I guess this makes official. It's over.
Photo Journalist Bill Eppridge answers many questions about RFK's life.
That his latest effort to reform the process.
It's the biggest jump since 1986.
High Schools are still not nice places for gay kids, despite all of the reforms and greater tolerance of today.
The court in it's infamous wisdom has decided it's constitution for police to stick a GPS tracking device on a person's car without a warrant.
This is a terrible decision for many reasons.
For one, it should be illegal to tamper with anybody's vehicle. People should not be allowed to touch other's peoples cars, much less put anything on anybody's bumper or other part of the car. Cars are private property, and nobody should be allowed to touch them, even if they are parked in a public space.
Everybody agrees that it is illegal and should be illegal for another individual to stick a bumpersticker on somebody's car without their permission. If a police officer where to put a bumpersticker on somebody's car without their permission ("Support Judge Egan"), there would be a serious uproar.
Getting a warrant is not a big deal if the state has a cause. Likewise, reasonable surveillance and good police practices is fine, as long as they are not going above and beyond "normal" surveillance. We don't want the government spying on people.
They say they are duplicative and wasteful.
She's been busy with her newborn child, but she's still been conducting her official duties when she can get away from her child.
It used to be if hospitals screwed up under the state's Medicaid program, the state would pay for the costs of the mistakes. Now the hospitals will be responsible for the costs.
The American Prospect remembers the meaningful accomplishments of Hillary during her bid for the President.
Apparently the Times Union thinks the Senate Majority got it fixed up so that it won't be so icky when republicans get the minority equipment. Of course, Senate Republicans deny that passionately.
That's what Liz Benjamin Blogs About Today.
This is great.
Robert Harding over at the Albany Projects looks at marginal Senate Republicans:
(1) Serf Maltese (R) versus Joseph Addabbo (D) (SD-15): This will be one of a number of Senate seats you encounter where there is a Republican senator in a heavily Democratic district. The 15th Senate District is made up of 72,254 Democrats, 29,995 Republicans, 3,152 Independents, 1,734 Conservatives, 481 Working Families Party members and 29,846 Blanks. Addabbo, a New York City Councilmember, can win this seat. Maltese narrowly won reelection in 2006 and Addabbo could go dollar-for-dollar with him in 2008.
(2) Frank Padavan (R) versus James Gennaro (D) (SD-11): Again, SD-11 is heavily Democratic. There are 85,860 Democrats in this district, which amounts to about 54 percent of all registered voters in the district. Gennaro is another New York City Councilmember who can put up a huge challenge to Padavan. Gennaro can also win the money battle and put Padavan on his heels.
(3) Joe Robach (R) versus Rick Dollinger (D) (SD-56): The 56th has another big Democratic enrollment advantage (77,295 Democrats to 44,902 Republicans) and the Democrats have a former state senator to bring a strong challenge against Robach. Dollinger, who served in the New York State Senate representing the old 54th Senate District from 1992 to 2002, represented a district very similar to the SD-56. The addition of Parma into SD-56 shouldn't be a problem and Dollinger can win this race. Money is not a problem. Both sides will spend tons of it to either win this seat or keep this seat. This should be a huge race to watch.
(4) Caesar Trunzo (R) versus Brian Foley/Jimmy Dahroug (D) (SD-3): The Democrats want to take more seats on Long Island and this is one that can be had. Trunzo is 82 years old and his age should be a factor. On the Democratic side, Foley was a late entry but brings a long record as a Democrat to the race. This is Dahroug's third try at Trunzo. When going head-to-head Democratic line versus Republican line, Dahroug beat Trunzo in 2006. Dahroug does have a case, but the Foley candidacy is said to make this race a top-tier challenge to Trunzo. Either way, we could be looking at another seat the GOP loses on Long Island in November.
(5) James Seward (R) versus Don Barber (D) (SD-51): On paper, this race looks "safe Republican." There is an enrollment advantage over 25,000 for the Republicans and Seward has incumbency on his side. But Don Barber can put up the kind of challenge that Darrel Aubertine waged in the 48th Senate District. Barber is very strong on energy and environmental issues and he has a great record as Town of Caroline Supervisor. As we get closer and closer to November, watch this race. It might not be a top-tier race, but it could be one where we surprise the GOP and steal it from them in November.
(6) James Alesi (R) versus David Nachbar (D) (SD-55)
: When I interviewed Nachbar, I encountered a very intelligent man and an outstanding candidate. He's only been in the race for less than a week, but he will make this race interesting as time goes on. Alesi is the weakest of the Monroe County state senators and apparently is not on Monroe County Republican chair Steve Minarik's good side. That does not bode well for him. The Republicans might not leave him out to dry, but Nachbar brings a formidable challenge to SD-55 in a district with a small Republican enrollment advantage.
(7) Craig Johnson (D) versus Barbara Donno (R) (SD-7): Donno is the mayor for a village of 800 people. That doesn't make her a threat, but she does have some wealth on her side. Johnson won't take this race lightly and will campaign just as hard as he did when he won the special election last year. This is his first general election and defense of his seat so he will be campaigning as if Donno was a legitimate contender.
(8) OPEN SEAT - Mike Ranzenhofer (R) versus Michele Iannello/Joe Mesi/Dan Ward (D) (SD-61): This one slips down the chart because of the uncertainty with the Democratic line. The Erie County Democrats won't endorse and will allow an open primary. Mesi has received two minor party lines. If someone other than Mesi receives the Democratic line, that could be a mess for us. In a sense, the only thing preventing the Democrats from winning this seat in November are the Democrats. Ranzenhofer is a weak candidate who can lose to any of the three candidates the Democrats have. We will see how it plays out. It will be very interesting.
(9) Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D) versus John Murtagh (R) (SD-35): Stewart-Cousins faced a hard-fought battle with Nick Spano for this seat so it shouldn't be surprised that she is being targeted. She should win, but the Republicans will mount a challenge. Some of these seats the GOP may lose in November could be covered with taking some Democratic Senate seats. This one is an example.
(10) Michael Nozzolio (R) versus Paloma Capanna (D) (SD-54): Capanna was very impressive at the Democratic Rural Convention in April. She has a strong grasp of issues like health care, which is really becoming an important state issue. This is a tough race, but considering Nozzolio didn't have a contender in 2006, this could get interesting. Capanna does have backing from the Working Families Party and could pose a threat to this seat. Right now, it's probably not a top-tier or even second-tier race, but we will see how it evolves to move it up (or down) the ladder.
Interesting.
